Odds On Tiger
Las Vegas Hilton golf specialist and oddsmaker Jeff Sherman had one important duty to tackle Sunday before he could focus on Super Bowl chores: Adjusting Masters odds on Tiger Woods after golf’s 29-year-old superstar boosted his record for the year to two-for-two by winning the Dubai Desert Classic.
“It’s a smooth start of the year for him,” Sherman said.
Located in the United Emirates Republic half-a-world away and many time zones ahead of Las Vegas, Dubai annually draws golf’s top players — at a price.
Some sports books had Woods linked up to Super Bowl XL in betting propositions.
Woods received a $3 million appearance fee, far more than he earned for winning the $5.4 million tournament.
“I lowered him to 9/4,” said Sherman, who had Woods at 5/2 at the start of 2006.
Phil Mickelson remained the 7/1 second choice and Vijay Singh was still the 10/1 fourth selection.
Ernie Els dipped to 8/1 from 9/1.
Retief Goosen remained 15/1, Sergio Garcia dropped from 25/1 to 20/1; Jim Furyk and Chris DiMarco are 25/1.
Longest shot on the board is 1991 champ Ian Woosnam at 1000/1; two-time green jacket winner Tom Watson is 500/1, along with Craig Stadler.
Woods, recent purchaser of a $38 million Florida oceanfront mansion with his wife, Elin, will be seeking his fifth victory at Augusta, where he is defending champ.
Sherman has posted a prop that asks how many majors Woods will win in 2006.
Zero is 3/2, one is 5/4, two is 3/1, three is 15/1 and four (grand slam) is 40/1.
Woods has indicated he plans to play six times leading up to the Masters, including this week in Los Angeles.
The Masters is slated April 6 through 9.
Lynda Collins is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of her articles at http://www.procappers.com/Lynda_Collins.htm.
AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Preview
J.B. Holmes shocked the golfing world with a runaway win at the FBR Open last week. He came in ranked 464th in the world but his second top ten of the season will certainly draw some attention his way. On the 18th last Sunday, he bombed a 354-yard drive to the delight of the spectators and if anyone saw him after that shot, they saw a young man shaking like a first time winner should be.
It’s on to California this week and the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am where Phil Mickelson will try to defend a title for a second straight week. Big hitters have fared well in this event in recent years and this year should be no exception once again. Weather is always a big factor, namely wind, but the outlook is good this coming week for the three courses taking part - Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Hill and Poppy Hills.
Mickelson started last year with an opening round 62 at Spyglass and never looked back. He took a seven stroke lead into Sunday and even a one-over 73 on the final day gave him a four-stroke win. Lefty has won this event twice and has four top three finishes in the past eight years so he is the favorite for the second straight week for good reason. There is another lefty that has also fared well here but has yet to break through.
Mike Weir should be in the mix once again this year. He has finished eighth or better in five of his last six appearances, including second last year, fourth in 2004 and third in 2003. Seventeen of his last 24 rounds have been under par. Over the past 10 years, Weir has the highest percentage of top tens to starts at 62.5 percent (5-8) bettering Vijay Singh (5-9) and Aaron Oberholser (2-4) as the only players above 50 percent.
One name that jumps out is Mark O’Meara who has won at Pebble a record five times. The problem is that O’Meara is not exactly lighting things up as he hasn’t won here since 1997 and hasn’t won on tour since the 1998 British Open. Since that win in ‘97, O’Meara has finished no better than 15th, has finished 51st or worse six times and has only four rounds in the 60’s. He had a 16th place finish at the Buick two weeks ago so who knows.
Singh is never out of contention it seems and even though his 20th place finish at the FBR was his first out of the top ten this season, he is another player who fares well at Pebble. He has the best scoring average over the last 10 years at 70.03 and he has finished first or second in three of his last six starts here. He did miss the cut last year following his win 2004 by three shots over Jeff Maggert.
Even though the scoring averages are rather high, the winning scores have not. Mickelson won with a -19 last year, one off the tournament record set by O’Meara and the last 10 winners have all finished -10 or better. This has been the year of the rookie so far this season with unknowns such as Holmes, Bubba Watson and Nathan Green making noise. Watson, along with three other rookies, is in the top ten in driving and cannot be discounted.
Matt Fargo is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Matt_Fargo.htm.
Mercedes Championships PGA 2006 Begins
Right, Max. Hawaii, Max.
It`s not just that California`s had a run of really wet weather lately (possibly forecasting the rain-delayed 2005 West Coast swing that revivified the age-old debate about indoor golf), it`s that the famous line from Annie Hall—”California, Max”, as in, “if we lived in California, we could play outdoors every day, in the sun”—doesn`t apply this week because the PGA Tour kicks off the 2006 season with the Mercedes Championships at the Plantation Course in Kapalua, Hawaii, where the usual weather event comes in the form of trade winds, not steady drenching rains.
Every year I talk about what a great tournament this is: TV cutaways to and fro, commercial breaks of beautiful vistas, sun and sea from the course`s tall hills; a solid field of last year`s Tour winners; 400-plus yard drives on the last hole; and the possibility of long money on quality golfers in a small field. Because Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Retief Goosen and Padraig Harrington are not playing (or Ernie Els, by the way, who didn`t win in his injury-shortened 2005) and because there were so many low-ranked winners on Tour last year, this week`s Mercedes is a smaller (28-player), more bargain-filled field than normal. Mickelson and Goosen didn`t do the Silly Season tour like Woods and Harrington, and the latter`s decision to not play in Kapalua is curious as he`s never played in the tournament. Hawaii`s a long flight from anywhere, fine, but it`s a guaranteed paycheck. And I have to figure the islands are sunnier than Ireland this time of year. Hawaii, Padraig.
There`s always the flipside to the strength-of-field approach. Maybe the favorites—Vijay Singh, Jim Furyk, David Toms and Sergio Garcia—do look more likely to win than 50-1 shots like Jason Bohn, Jason Gore and Ted Purdy. But given that there`s no cut, the pressure is off slightly, and so is the intimidation factor, which is significantly less a factor anyway because Tiger isn`t playing. Even if the world #1 was playing, though, I`d still look at other golfers. Bart Bryant, an unknown, won twice last year: the Memorial and season-ending Tour Championship where he held off guess who? Purdy won the Byron Nelson last May, fending off Singh.
As for the course, there are the peaks and valleys of Kapalua, and those trade winds (which are almost always at the players` backs on the last hole, yielding those 400-500-yard drives). The greens can be slick, which might be a factor for the favorite, Singh. Two months doesn`t account for much of an offseason; who can say if Vijay`s come to a happy place with his putter?
Jeremy Church covers Nascar for Brian Gabrielle Sports.
Jeremy Church is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Jeremy_Church.htm.
