Odds On Tiger
Las Vegas Hilton golf specialist and oddsmaker Jeff Sherman had one important duty to tackle Sunday before he could focus on Super Bowl chores: Adjusting Masters odds on Tiger Woods after golf’s 29-year-old superstar boosted his record for the year to two-for-two by winning the Dubai Desert Classic.
“It’s a smooth start of the year for him,” Sherman said.
Located in the United Emirates Republic half-a-world away and many time zones ahead of Las Vegas, Dubai annually draws golf’s top players — at a price.
Some sports books had Woods linked up to Super Bowl XL in betting propositions.
Woods received a $3 million appearance fee, far more than he earned for winning the $5.4 million tournament.
“I lowered him to 9/4,” said Sherman, who had Woods at 5/2 at the start of 2006.
Phil Mickelson remained the 7/1 second choice and Vijay Singh was still the 10/1 fourth selection.
Ernie Els dipped to 8/1 from 9/1.
Retief Goosen remained 15/1, Sergio Garcia dropped from 25/1 to 20/1; Jim Furyk and Chris DiMarco are 25/1.
Longest shot on the board is 1991 champ Ian Woosnam at 1000/1; two-time green jacket winner Tom Watson is 500/1, along with Craig Stadler.
Woods, recent purchaser of a $38 million Florida oceanfront mansion with his wife, Elin, will be seeking his fifth victory at Augusta, where he is defending champ.
Sherman has posted a prop that asks how many majors Woods will win in 2006.
Zero is 3/2, one is 5/4, two is 3/1, three is 15/1 and four (grand slam) is 40/1.
Woods has indicated he plans to play six times leading up to the Masters, including this week in Los Angeles.
The Masters is slated April 6 through 9.
Lynda Collins is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of her articles at http://www.procappers.com/Lynda_Collins.htm.
Should Men Play Ladies’ Events
Jean Van de Velde says he wants to qualify for the Women’s British Open in 2006.
“I just don’t understand it,” Van de Velde said last Thursday at the Volvo Masters. “And if my application is not accepted I will definitely get advice and see how far it will go. I am making a point. I’m not trying to take a sexist stance.”
What’s his point? Van de Velde’s point is that, because the Royal and
Ancient has changed its rules to allow women to qualify, men should be allowed to qualify for the Women’s Open. Is that sexist? No. Does he have a point? Yes, it’s just not a compelling one.
We don’t even need to get into the heart of this—that if men are allowed to play in women’s events, many women would not be able to compete. (This is not to say, by the way, that Van de Velde would dominate or fare well in the Women’s Open.) Given all the gender talk in golf the last few years—Annika Sorenstam playing on the PGA Tour, criticism of her presence by some men on Tour, Martha Burke’s protest of The Masters, a new wave of women golfers who can out drive some of the top men and may be able to
outplay them in the coming years—Van de Velde’s statement is no more compelling than the motivation behind picking sides in grade school kickball.
My question for Van de Velde is: don’t you always want to play the best? If Michelle Wie’s prodigious drives and overall talent have her playing at a much higher level than exists on the LPGA, wouldn’t she want to try her skills at a more competitive level (for her)? Is there anything wrong with that? No. I want to see the best, no matter the gender.
I watched Wie at last year’s Women’s U.S. Open. She’s amazing. Watching Van de Velde, currently ranked #283 in the PGA Tour World Golf Ranking, play in any tournament is not exactly scintillating entertainment. Watching his triple bogey at Carnoustie in 1999, in the British Open, trousers rolled up to his knees, was entertaining in a guilty train-wreck-in-progress kind of way. But I’d rather watch Phil Mickelson winning the Masters two years ago, or Tiger
this year, than watch self destruction, a la Van de Velde in ‘99 or Greg Norman’s major collapse at the Masters in 1996.
Jay Haas could have racked up wins on the Champions Tour last year, when he was 50. Instead he played most of the year on the PGA Tour because he felt like he could still compete. And he did, registering eight top-10s. He spent more time on the Champions Tour this year and has two wins to show for it. But for a year, able to qualify on two Tours, he chose to spend most of his time playing at a higher level. “Playing at a higher level” is to take nothing away from the Champions Tour, as the same statement in the Van de Velde scenario would be to take nothing away from the LPGA. It’s all so
silly on many levels. Not acknowledging basic physical gender
characteristics is as silly as criticizing Sorenstam or any other woman for playing or trying to play in a men’s event.
Last week: Tom Lehman was looking good in the outright at 81-1 after an opening 67 in the Chrysler Championship. In fact, all three of my outright picks (Retief Goosen and Charles Howell III were the other two) shot 67s Thursday and were on the first page of the leader board. But, as has happened so many times this frustrating season, none of them were able to triumph. Howell ended up T16, Lehman T44, Goosen T35. I won on the head-to-head, though, for the fourth straight tournament, picking Goose to finish higher than Vijay Singh, who missed the cut. Therefore I was finished
up a net $1,200 for the week as we go into the final official tournament of 2005.
This week: On Wednesday we’re supposed to hear about the Tour’s scheduling plans for 2007 from commissioner Tim Finchem. There’s talk of a points race and a playoff, culminating with the Tour Championship, this week’s end-of-season tournament. I’ve been griping about the length of the season and the lack of interest in tournaments after the season’s last major, the PGA Championship in August. We’ll see what they come up with. If they move the Tour Championship up on the calendar and still have the tournaments that precede it now, we’ll be in the same position. That will effectively end the season earlier (good) while extend the silly season (bad), which will be what those tournaments become if the Tour Championship
is made a more pronounced Super Bowl than it is now. It’s tricky. We’ll see that they come up with.
In any case, the Tour Championship is Tiger’s tournament to lose. He’s won it before (in 1999) but not at East Lake Golf Club outside Atlanta. Tiger finished runner-up to Retief Goosen last year at East Lake. He wants this one pretty bad and he’s likely going to get it, but I can’t go with him at 3.5-1 odds. That is simply not a money-winning proposition. So I’m going to make a big splash, and nail the season’s final tourney, making you some season-ending dough.
Take Ben Crane (66-1), 1/3rd unit. The slowest player on Tour may also be the best putter on Tour. You have to like that in a big tournament. Crane can score. He’s infuriating to watch, but he can score. Since the B.C. Open in July, he hasn’t missed a cut and has finished in the top-10 four times, including his win at the U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee. The last several years, the Tour Championship has been won by big names, which shouldn’t be a surprise because only top players make it in. Here’s to Crane
being this year’s Chad Campbell.
Take Stuart Appleby (50-1), 1/3rd unit. The Aussie who started 2005 with a win can close the season with a win because he’s playing consistently good golf (T9, T11, T58, T32, T27 in his last five tournaments) and he’s a touch veteran, unfazed by the star caliber in the field. Putting is the biggest concern.
Take Kenny Perry (40-1), 1/3rd unit. I especially like this pick. We haven’t heard much from Perry in the last couple months. He’s only played twice in that time and only one money event, the WGC American Express Championship the beginning of October. But what another fine year for Perry: wins at Bay Hill and the Colonial, to go with five top-10s and six top-25s. Perry continues to be scary-good with the irons.
In the head-to-head, take Crane to finish higher than Sean O’Hair at 10/11odds (two units).
Jeremy Church is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League. Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Jeremy_Church.htm.
Tags: bet, golf, Jeremy Church, procappers, professional handicappers league, sports, womens british openAT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Golf Is More Super
In hindsight, all the ingredients were there for one of the most boring Super Bowls in recent memory: fake grass under a climate-controlled dome, a team from Seattle, two overrated quarterbacks, a beaten-to-death story about Jerome Bettis coming home to end his career in its biggest game. I don’t watch the Super Bowl for the commercials or the halftime show (the Stones were painful, physically painful to watch, which I was only able to do for about two minutes), I watch it for the game, which sucked in just about every way: there were way too many missed opportunities, turnovers, dropped passes, stumbles and trips on the fake sod, the officiating was terrible, time management was a disaster, missed field goals, an aversion to first-down-making by the Steelers, and an aversion to stopping on third downs by the Seahawks. If you’re Paul Tagliabue, you’re going: “How could the Patriots have lost to Denver?”
Not long before the start of the XL bust, 80,000 strong in Scottsdale, Arizona, watched the final round of the FBR Open, where J.B. Holmes, a 23-year-old rookie, won his first tournament in just four tries with a solid performance, highlighted by 350-yard bombs off the tee, which are considerably more interesting than watching Ben Roethlisberger scramble. Than watching Ben Roethlisberger doing anything, really.
Last week: None of my outrights came through, but I took the head-to-head with Jesper Parnevik finishing ahead of Tom Lehman (Lehman missed the cut, Parnevik finished T33). Those two units netted $2,000 against the $1,000 loss on the outright, giving me plus $1,000 for the week and bringing the season tally up to $2,984.84.
This week, the Tour makes its annual return to Monterey and the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am. Carson Daly is still a massive tool, as far as I know, but then I only see the King of all Tools but once a year. He probably lives in some far corner of TV Land, somewhere where they don’t even bother selling you chips or beer, they just go for hard drugs. He’ll be playing this week, as will other celebrities.
Phil Mickelson returns and defends. He appears to be on the bad side of the good-Phil-vs.-bad-Phil game. He’ll probably win another major or two and he’ll win plenty more tournaments, but he’s basically playing for second, as is every other golfer in the world. Tiger’s not playing again this week. You have to figure Vijay Singh and Mickelson are thinking time’s a wastin’ to get an early win under their belts. To the picks!
Take Aaron Oberholser (25-1), 1/3rd unit: He’s off to a T24, 15 and T10 (last week) start. He doesn’t hit it far but he’s pretty accurate and solid with his irons. Last year at Pebble he was T6, the year before he was T4.
Take Jesper Parnevik (40-1), 1/3rd unit: Why not? He’s still playing well, consistently well with T42, T10, T2 and last week’s T33 to start the year. There’s no significant problem area in his game right now, and lest you think he can’t keep up, he’s averaging 294 yards per drive. Last year he missed the cut at Pebble.
Take Vijay Singh (8-1), 1/3 unit: Vijay generally doesn’t like the slow play. Last year he made a mess of things, sprayed the ball all over the place and at times looked like a weekend hacker on his way to missing the cut at Pebble. But he won Pebble the year before (2004). In 2006, he’s got as laser-like an ability to hit greens as ever, and the putting is a bit better in the early going. Don’t forget about him. Of the two non-Tiger studs currently making the rounds, he sets up better for his first win because he’s much closer to Tiger in the mental arena than Phil is.
In the head-to-head, take Aaron Oberholser to finish higher than Chris DiMarco (1-1), 2 units: DiMarco finished T15 last week. He won the week before in Abu Dhabi. That might be the highlight of his year. I’m undecided as to how to play him at Augusta. In a lot of ways, I think his game sets up better for the British Open. But they’re a ways off.
Jeremy Church is a documented member of the Professional Handicappers League.
Read all of his articles at http://www.procappers.com/Jeremy_Church.htm.
